I'm sorry you don't understand this definition.
It's a false assumption by you to think I am taking a shot at a kid when all I am doing is making an estimation, based on my opinion, of his play as to how he will project out in the pros.
These are the facts I gathered from watching him: Kizer has a losing record, he doesn't elevate the play of those around him, he's borderline overweight for a QB, he tends to hold the ball way to long, he's indecisive, he's proven to lack the ability to scan the field and find the open WR, he never looks middle, he locks onto WRs, he audibles to frequently into the wrong play, he plays the first quarter and last 3 minutes of the game but fails to stay awake for the entire middle of the game, He shows pretty good to very good pocket awareness, He throws a nice deep ball but is fairly inaccurate, he presses a lot and his play declines quickly, He's a timid and frail runner but faster than he looks, Mentally he seems to struggle when the going gets tough, He doesn't play with fire or passion, Too many deer in headlight looks for the amount of games he's played.
None of this translates into a high or first round draft choice. On paper he looks good. In games he does not. He's a high risk project.
On the bright side he seems to have his head on his shoulders. Maybe he turns into a football junkie and proves me wrong. I see 10 QBs a year come out of college who have more skill and look better than Kizer does today. Most of those guys never make it. Kizer is like a poor mans version of Dante Culpepper. A very poor man.
Look 3 years back since those guys have at least been in the league long enough to get an idea, 2014 draft:
1. Bortles (1) - Kizer's not even close and Bortles is about to get the axe because he's been subpar
2. Manziel (1) - Way more talent than Kizer, but a total bonehead. Out of football
3. Bridgewater (1) - Slow to progress but making his way before injury. Kizer has more raw size and arm but TB is a much better leader.
4. Derek Carr (2) - Killing it. More fire, passion and better passer
5. Jimmy Garoppolo (2) - Probably career backup. I don't know much about him. NE likes him.
6. Logan Thomas (4) - YOUR BEST COMPARISON. Labeled a project. Very similar to Kizer in size, skill and college performance. Nothing to date
7. Tom Savage (4) - Back up until Osweiler became inept. Then went to backup again. Underperformed in college, maybe similar to Kizer
8. Aaron Murray (5) - Light years ahead of Kizer in college play and skill (minus arm). I think he might be out of football already
9. AJ McCarron (5) - Spot duty. Much less skill, much better understanding of the game mentally. Better pure QB
10.Zach Mettenberger (6) - Career backup with big arm. Might be out of football this year.
Out of this list I might take Kizer over Garoppolo and Mettenberger, but I never saw Garoppolo play in college. Everyone was far superior to Kizer in college. Looking at this list I would put Kizer being drafted in rounds 4-6 rounds with the outside chance of 7 to undrafted. I think he's a big enough project, so I really doubt he'd go undrafted. I wouldn't be surprised but highly doubt it.