You're not seriously suggesting that Louisville constitutes a difficult road test, are you? Coming off a whopping 2-10 campaign in 2018?
I'll give you Georgia, where ND is likely to be at least a TD underdog. Likewise, Michigan, which could be a pick 'em to +3 for the Irish. I think Kelly gets the Stanford road monkey off his back this season, though... The talent level in Palo Alto has simply declined, and I think we've begun to see that play out on the field [and will continue to do so]...
I have to agree that the home schedule sets up well for the Irish... But a definitive return to the CFP will require ND to navigate the Georgia and Michigan games without a loss, and I'm not sure I'd bet the mortgage on that one...