Counterpoint: Why The Crash May Not Materialize
While the risks are real, a full-blown crash isn’t guaranteed. The U.S. still retains key advantages: (a) the world’s reserve currency, (2) deep and liquid capital markets, and (3) a resilient, innovation-driven economy.
The Federal Reserve has shown it can act decisively in times of stress. The trade-tensions sparked by tariffs are already easing, and the market bounce-back reflects that.
Moreover, global alternatives remain limited - making U.S. assets, even at higher yields, relatively attractive. If inflation remains contained and growth holds up, markets could digest higher rates without unraveling. In this more benign scenario, the Moody’s downgrade becomes a wake-up call - not a trigger for collapse.