UHND.com - Notre Dame Football, Basketball, & Recruiting

------------------
Forecasters Predict Lower Growth and Employment in 2025

The outlook for the U.S. economy looks dimmer now than it did three months ago, according to 36 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will grow at an annual rate of 1.5 percent this quarter, down from the prediction of 2.1 percent in the last survey. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 1.4 percent in 2025, down 1.0 percentage point from the estimate in the survey of three months ago.

An upward revision to the path for the unemployment rate accompanies the outlook for growth. The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will increase from 4.2 percent this quarter to 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 2026. In the previous survey, the unemployment rate was forecast to rise from 4.2 percent to 4.3 percent over the same period. On an annual-average basis, the forecasters expect the unemployment rate to average 4.3 percent in 2025, marking a slight upward revision from the previous estimate of 4.2 percent. The forecasters also predict higher unemployment rates over the next three years, compared with those in the previous survey.
------------------

As I said...there are multiple forecasts that differ from Cole's singular estimate...


Link: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2025