It's impossible to project climate impact next week, yet so many hang on every word of these multi-decade projections as if they are gospel. These studies are typically accompanied by dire headlines about how we MUST ACT NOW, along with pithy quotes from the usual douchebags who love to lecture us.
Meanwhile, in the real world, this is happening:
"Coal remains at the heart of China’s flourishing economy. In 2019, 58 percent of the country’s total energy consumption came from coal, which helps explain why China accounts for 28 percent of all global CO2 emissions. And China continues to build coal-fired power plants at a rate that outpaces the rest of the world combined. In 2020, China brought 38.4 gigawatts of new coal-fired power into operation, more than three times what was brought on line everywhere else.
A total of 247 gigawatts of coal power is now in planning or development, nearly six times Germany’s entire coal-fired capacity. China has also proposed additional new coal plants that, if built, would generate 73.5 gigawatts of power, more than five times the 13.9 gigawatts proposed in the rest of the world combined. Last year, Chinese provinces granted construction approval to 47 gigawatts of coal power projects, more than three times the capacity permitted in 2019."
And that's just China (hailed as a signatory of the Paris Climate Accord, btw). The billions more in the developing world will turn to FF for their energy needs, because for them, there is no alternative.
FF usage will increase and remain the planet's dominant fuel source for a very long time. Hoping for a reduction in the next 20, 30 years is just wishful thinking.
So, to your original post...'we could just cut our FF usage in half'. No, we can't. That would be impossible over the next several decades.
Link: China