He's openly admitted a lack of motivation since winning The Masters. He was completed zoned out last weekend. He could win the US Open or shoot 80-78 and miss the cut. Neither would surprise me.
As to his illegal driver that's such a non-story. Scottie's was ruled non-conforming that same week as were several others but Rory's was the only name that leaked to the press. No big deal. I don't think there was any intent to cheat. Guys that swing that hard can knock a conforming driver into non-conformance with their violent contact on every swing.