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Based on data from Syracuse University's Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC), the asylum grant rate under the Biden administration has fluctuated significantly, showing a marked decline in recent years.
Recent trends
Early administration: In Fiscal Year (FY) 2021, the rate of asylum grants by immigration judges increased to 37%, up from 29% in the final year of the Trump administration. The rate climbed further, peaking at 52.6% in September 2023.
Decline in late 2024: By October 2024, the asylum approval rate had dropped sharply to around 35.8%. This figure is comparable to the rate in October 2020, before Biden took office.
Overall FY2024 (Court decisions): The grant rate for asylum cases decided in immigration court for all of FY2024 (October 2023 to September 2024) was approximately 36%.
Factors influencing the approval rate
The grant rate is influenced by various factors, including:
Accelerated proceedings: New regulations intended to speed up asylum proceedings have been linked to increased denials, as they can limit the time asylum-seekers have to prepare their cases.
Legal representation: Asylum-seekers with legal representation have significantly higher success rates. For cases in 2024, 53% of applicants with a lawyer were granted asylum, compared to just 19% for those without representation.
Country of origin: Approval rates can vary widely by nationality. For example, some Latin American nationalities had grant rates below 20% in FY2024, while asylum-seekers from certain countries like Belarus, Afghanistan, and Russia had approval rates of over 85%.
Asylum process: The numbers above primarily reflect cases decided by immigration judges (defensive asylum). The grant rates for initial applications decided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) asylum officers (affirmative asylum) are often even lower.