UHND.com - Notre Dame Football, Basketball, & Recruiting

still there...so, to help, here's an AI summary of the BRF...note the problem of always placing trust on statistically unsupported outliers...seems to be emblematic of your decision making...

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AI Overview

The base rate fallacy (or neglect) is a cognitive error where people ignore general statistical information (the "base rate") and focus too much on specific, case-based details, leading to poor probability judgments, like fearing rare plane crashes more than common car accidents because crashes are more memorable. It's a failure to consider the overall prevalence or frequency of an event, relying instead on intuitive, vivid, or anecdotal evidence, often resulting in skewed risk perception in medicine, finance, and daily life.

How it works

Ignoring context: You have a specific description (e.g., someone loves poetry and reading) and ignore the base rate (e.g., far more people play soccer than golf) to make a guess, says Scribbr.

Focusing on vivid details: Sensationalized stories or individual instances (like a successful startup) are more compelling than dry statistics (like the high failure rate of startups), leading you to misjudge future outcomes.

Examples
Medical Tests: Believing a rare disease is likely after a positive test, even if the base rate (how common it is) is very low, meaning the test's false positives are more common than true positives.

Finance: Investing heavily in a startup because you know one successful one, ignoring the typical failure rate for all startups, notes QuillBot.

Safety: Fearing flying more than driving, despite car accidents being statistically far more common.

How to avoid it
Consider the big picture: Always ask about the general prevalence or frequency of the event first.

Seek statistical evidence: Rely on data and statistics rather than just compelling stories or anecdotes, advises QuillBot.

Think critically: Recognize that an accurate test or a compelling story doesn't automatically change the underlying probability, especially for rare events, says Medium.
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Hope this helps.