...an excerpt from the attached article...
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Approval ratings can be buoyed by loyal partisans, but history suggests independents are often the clearest signal of trouble ahead. As polling specialist Brett Loyd put it, once that bloc breaks decisively, midterm outcomes tend to follow.
“Overall approval ratings are often padded by loyal partisans, but independent sentiment is the most accurate crystal ball for the tossup midterm races,” Loyd, who is a polling and research specialist for the Independent Center, told Newsweek. “Historically, if the independent margin in these races is double digits for the opposition, the party in power can start packing their offices and sprucing up their resumes.”
A new Quinnipiac University poll paints a stark picture of how independentscurrently view the president.
The survey, conducted from March 19 to 23 among 1,191 self-identified registered voters nationwide, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, including the design effect.
Among independents only, Trump’s approval stands at 25 percent, while 68 percent disapprove, leaving him with a net approval rating of minus 43.
The numbers represent a dramatic shift from late last year. In December, Quinnipiac found Trump with 35 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval among independents, a net rating of minus 23.
That earlier poll surveyed 1,035 self-identified registered voters nationwide from December 11 to 15 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect.
Taken together, the movement amounts to a 20 point net negative swing in just a few months, a reversal Loyd described as more than routine fluctuation.
Speaking about the broader pattern, he said independents appear to be souring across the board rather than reacting to a single policy dispute.
Trump Underwater on Every Issue
Trump is now underwater with independents on every major issue tested, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll.
On the economy, his net approval sits at minus 42, on foreign policy, it falls to minus 47, and the situation with Iran fares worst of all, at minus 49.
Loyd said that kind of across-the-board disapproval matters more than any one headline.
When asked how significant it is for independents to be negative on every major issue at once, he said it reflects a deeper loss of confidence.
“It signals a shift from policy disagreement to a loss of confidence,” Loyd said, drawing a comparison to Democrats’ internal reckoning during the last election cycle.
“They knew he [Joe Biden] had lost the middle's confidence, and at that point, the slide becomes irreversible. It signals a shift from mere policy disagreement to a total loss of faith in a leader’s ability to actually steer the ship.”
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Link: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-collapses-independents-11740829