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He sounds like a consummate professional.
Author:
NedoftheHill
(41209 Posts - Joined: Jun 29, 2011)
Posted at 6:06 pm on Oct 25, 2016
View All
(no message)
Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.
Replies to: "He sounds like a consummate professional."
Reconciling what the polls say vs. what we see every day
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MarkHarman
- 10:16pm 10/24/16
(68)
[View All]
Something to consider when placing weight on public polling
[
LINK
]
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Rocket91
- 5:33pm 10/25/16
There is a word for people who doubt the polls.
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Chris94
- 10:49am 10/25/16
But why the huge disparity in enthusiasm? That's my question.
[NT]
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MarkHarman
- 9:44pm 10/25/16
Silly discussion. There is going to be a vote, if the polls are wrong then he'll win.
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Rocket91
- 5:13pm 10/25/16
The subject is reconciling, not a silly one. It could be both are true, i.e .polls & what people saw
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Eli
- 6:12pm 10/25/16
Good call. I was responding more to Chris than Mark, should have made that more clear.
[NT]
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Rocket91
- 8:13pm 10/25/16
In other words, you are in denial, with respect to "oversampling"...
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fredyo
- 4:47pm 10/25/16
I suppose you think that professional pollsters are not aware of such things?
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Chris94
- 5:11pm 10/25/16
The Trilateral Commission was founded by David Rockefeller in '73 and run by...
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fredyo
- 5:31pm 10/25/16
I knew they would be part of the global conspiracy network. Council on Foreign Relations too, right?
[NT]
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Chris94
- 5:36pm 10/25/16
Ubetcha'!
[NT]
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fredyo
- 5:37pm 10/25/16
Evil bastards!
[NT]
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Chris94
- 5:37pm 10/25/16
I agree that is what reputable pollsters do, just not the MSM ones.
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BaronVonZemo
- 5:30pm 10/25/16
Their reputations and livelyhood are on the line. Rasmussen took a big hit for his 2012 sampling.
[NT]
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Frank L
- 5:13pm 10/25/16
What you said is just opposite to the fact. It's known 2012 polls were bias to R. That's why Romney
[
LINK
]
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Eli
- 1:40pm 10/25/16
Wrong: it has been widely reported that Romney acknowledged he was going to lose
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Cole
- 11:36am 10/25/16
Why do you shitbirds doubt me?
[NT]
[
LINK
]
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Chris94
- 12:38pm 10/25/16
Dunno, but if anyone wants to bet straight up I'll take the pollsters position.
[NT]
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Frank L
- 1:38pm 10/25/16
I would, too. Go with the line when betting straight up is usually the way to go, right?
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NedoftheHill
- 3:21pm 10/25/16
Correct, when the line appears to be reasonable. Given Drumph, I'm surprised it's just 5 points.
[NT]
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Frank L
- 5:09pm 10/25/16
WHY IS HILLARY NOT WINNING BY 40 POINTS?!!
[NT]
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NedoftheHill
- 6:01pm 10/25/16
Over sampling by Rasmussen?
[NT]
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Frank L
- 8:44pm 10/25/16
You're such a dumb shit quoting Slate magazine
[NT]
[
LINK
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Cole
- 1:10pm 10/25/16
It was written by John Dickerson. Not that you know who that is.
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Chris94
- 1:14pm 10/25/16
He should be embarassed for publishing in Slate.
[NT]
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Cole
- 1:20pm 10/25/16
I think that it's razor close.
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BaronVonZemo
- 8:20am 10/25/16
A statement from 538 to give you some confidence
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NedoftheHill
- 3:35pm 10/25/16
Of course you do.
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bbkingfish
- 1:53pm 10/25/16
The polls are not fixed. This is another thing we have been over 100 times.
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Chris94
- 10:53am 10/25/16
Yeah, that Podesta email was just that crazy Vlad at it again.
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BaronVonZemo
- 5:29pm 10/25/16
Have you seen Podesta's emails about coordinating poll oversampling in key areas?
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NedoftheHill
- 12:27pm 10/25/16
Oversampling is a common feature of internal polling by political campaigns.
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bbkingfish
- 12:57pm 10/25/16
That's what I was wondering.
[NT]
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NedoftheHill
- 6:11pm 10/25/16
It also wouldn't make sense to skew an internal poll
[NT]
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Rocket91
- 4:53pm 10/25/16
True. Although, an internal poll is only internal until it is released.
[NT]
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NedoftheHill
- 6:11pm 10/25/16
Correct. But what benefit is it for a campaign to release a cooked poll?
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Rocket91
- 6:56pm 10/25/16
Here's an analysis of poll accuracy
[
LINK
]
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Chris94
- 12:36pm 10/25/16
Just realized you didn't answer my question. Podesta wanted certain types of oversampling.
[NT]
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NedoftheHill
- 6:10pm 10/25/16
Your link: Polls banned b/c they "faked...polling results or [for] other gross ethical misconduct."
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NedoftheHill
- 3:15pm 10/25/16
That's why you should stick to the highly rated ones.
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Chris94
- 4:24pm 10/25/16
He sounds like a consummate professional.
[NT]
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NedoftheHill
- 6:06pm 10/25/16
Or an aggregate of all the polls.
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bbkingfish
- 4:39pm 10/25/16
Birds fly, fish swim, and polls . . . . .
[NT]
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TakethetrainKnute
- 11:32am 10/25/16
predict......reasonably accurately in recent years.
[NT]
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Frank L
- 3:16pm 10/25/16
are directionally accurate if they are constructed correctly.
[NT]
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LanceHarbor
- 11:55am 10/25/16
So, you are saying it depends on how they are constructed.
[NT]
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NedoftheHill
- 12:28pm 10/25/16
Of course. And there is a reason 538 has been so accurate the past 2 Pres. elections.
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LanceHarbor
- 1:29pm 10/25/16
As was the race with Romney and McCain...
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LanceHarbor
- 10:47am 10/25/16
Are you working?
[NT]
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Frank Blavitz
- 10:40pm 10/24/16
Still making only $9/hour and can't afford health insurance. Thanks, Obama!
[NT]
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MarkHarman
- 10:00am 10/25/16
You should qualify for Obamacare (if your governor expanded Medicaid, that is)
[NT]
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Chris94
- 10:53am 10/25/16
Can't. My employer offers it, which I can't afford ($1,100 per month for my family)
[NT]
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MarkHarman
- 9:43pm 10/25/16
Trouble is he has to get the proper plan and his deductible is still through the roof.
[NT]
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THEISMANCARR
- 11:57am 10/25/16
Correct.
[NT]
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Frank L
- 12:58pm 10/25/16
I think you are right.
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NedoftheHill
- 10:28pm 10/24/16
Serious question:
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LanceHarbor
- 10:33am 10/25/16
Answer.
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NedoftheHill
- 12:04pm 10/25/16
Don't know about her being nicer to be around. Seems like a "nasty woman".
[NT]
[
LINK
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Frank L
- 3:09pm 10/25/16
Then why perpetuate the use of the phrase?
[NT]
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LanceHarbor
- 1:29pm 10/25/16
I just thought that was the clearest way to refer to it.
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NedoftheHill
- 2:32pm 10/25/16
The Dilbert guy said basically the same thing:
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Cole
- 7:55am 10/25/16
The violence on the left is definitely something I'm concerned about personally.
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NedoftheHill
- 12:17pm 10/25/16
The intimidation of people and corporations will continue.
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Cole
- 2:12pm 10/25/16
If you are that big a pussy that you are ashamed of who you contribute to, you are a loser.
[NT]
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Frank L
- 7:02pm 10/25/16
Frank L's nastiness comes out. Not hard to elicit.
[NT]
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Cole
- 9:10am 10/26/16
You know my feelings on Don and I'll never vote for him. But the hypocrisy of the feminists who are
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Frank L
- 11:05pm 10/24/16
Don't worry, it's possible that the Soros' voting machine will count your vote for HRC anyways
[NT]
[
LINK
]
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BaronVonZemo
- 8:22am 10/25/16
Looks like one of those machines has popped up in Texas
[
LINK
]
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BaronVonZemo
- 8:28am 10/25/16