"First, he’s probably betting that it’s better to keep party promises than to buckle to majority sentiment. Republicans vowed for years to repeal and replace Obamacare. By stitching together a deal that aims to meet the demands of conservative and centrist Republican senators, Mr. McConnell can claim the bill as an unalloyed win for conservative voters. It cuts taxes on the wealthy, ends government mandates and slashes entitlements — a dream come true for the ideological right.
Second, the bill delivers the goodies now and kicks costs down the road. Mr. McConnell has engineered a deeply cynical, but not uncommon, legislative move: The bill cuts taxes immediately and retroactively, but it pushes draconian health care cuts for the poor and disabled into the future. It is a classic case of Edward Tufte’s “myopic policy for myopic voters.” Mr. McConnell gambles that by delaying the downside to 2020 and beyond, he can muffle and deflect blame when voters hit the polls in 2018.
Third, he’s clearing the deck for tax reform. Republicans prefer to spend their time on taxes, not health care. Under normal Senate rules, action on both issues requires votes from Democratic senators, a tall order in polarized times. Instead, Republicans have submitted to arcane budget rules that let them pass bills with a simple majority, i.e., without the Democrats. But there’s a catch: There’s only one set of tracks that can carry these sorts of filibuster-proof measures, and the rules allow only one train car on the tracks at a time. Granted, Republican cleavage has thus far precluded any progress on taxes. But until health care is off their plate and budgeteers can prepare the next bill, tax reform is stuck in the rail yard."