wine this evening and you're probably almost done with it...but don't just revel in the glow...do a little work...
On the issue of your most serious side effect concern...I DO have data (see link)...for myocarditis and pericarditis, slightly over 2M vaccinated individuals were studied...NO DEATHS and NO ICU hospitalizations...whenever you get around to "fleshing out" your equations, be sure to use the DATA that's in the linked report.
Link: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782900