People have been paying high taxes in NY and CA for years. They remain among the most populous states. There has been some shifting but by and large, the overall numbers do not lie. If those states weren't awesome, nobody would live there and pay the taxes. Yet millions do. So let's look at the actual data and see what it tells us.
The red state gainers are warm weather states. NY will lose only two, and is a cold-weather state.
CA is lose one or no change. That is less than Ohio, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Michigan and West Virginia - are those high tax states as well?
Also - the cost of living in CA and NY is outrageous. Not so much in other states that lost a seat (OH, PA, AL, MI, WV). Again, because people want to be there, despite the taxes. That is why the cost of living (housing etc.) is so high in CA and NY.
According to Election Data Services, the following states are poised to gain seats:
Texas will gain three, from 36 to 39;
Florida will gain two, from 27 to 29;
Arizona will gain one, from nine to 10;
Colorado will gain one, from seven to eight;
Montana will gain one, from at-large to two;
North Carolina will gain one, from 13 to 14; and
Oregon will gain one, from five to six.
These states are poised to lose seats:
New York will lose two, from 27 to 25;
Alabama will lose one, from seven to six;
California will lose one or remain even, from 53 to 52 or no change;
Michigan will lose one, from 14 to 13;
Minnesota will lose one or remain even, from eight to seven or no change;
Ohio will lose one, from 16 to 15;
Pennsylvania will lose one, from 18 to 17;
Rhode Island will lose one, from two to one; and
West Virginia will lose one, from three to two.