But it has low confidence since the storm hasn’t formed yet.
The danger here is the scenario I have bored the wife about for years: no one knows what would happen if a tropical system hits when the river is high. Usually that is not a problem - spring thaw is usually done long before hurricane season. But this year has been different.
The storm is not going to be too big, and no evacuations are warranted.
But if it turns and hits town, there is going to be a lot of criticism of the army corps for not opening the spillways and lowering the river level. Many are wondering now why they haven’t done it already.
NB that I never blamed Bush or FEMA for Katrina. The Corps, though...