"I often see a 2016-based view of 2020 in my replies. They take Trump '16 support, and then say Dems can win with incremental changes like higher black turnout or a better candidate.
I don't think that assumption works, in part bc Trump is also stronger than he was in '16"
[Read that again, Lehigh]
"If you're a Dem, for instance, who thinks all you need to do is boost black turnout to something closer to '12, I would caution that this may no longer be what it takes to win. It's not '16 anymore."
"If you're convinced that Trump can't win over additional supporters, I'd caution that it sure seems like he's done quite a bit of it already. IDK if he can keep going, but it's hard to say he can't."
Link: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1159151317044072448