This is why I usually give foreign policy a wide berth.

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This is why I usually give foreign policy a wide berth.

Author: LehighND (7534 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 2:05 pm on Aug 13, 2019

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We don't know the universe of realistic outcomes in Libya and Egypt. We don't know if the outcome now is better than the median outcome. You've just come to the conclusion that the outcome there was a failure. Failure compared to what? Also, we don't know the probabilities of the different outcomes.
We don't know if the play was the highest probability play. The very best policy may nevertheless produce what you consider a "failure". Foreign policy is not an exact science.

So yes. Process matters. If Trump bets on rolling box cars, and Obama bets on rolling seven for the same odds, it doesn't mean Trump had our best interests in mind. It means his ego got in the way of our best interest. Even if he ends up rolling a 12 it does not change things.

Are you kind?

Replies to: "This is why I usually give foreign policy a wide berth."

Wonder if the EU and other media apologists will turn on China after they crush Hong Kong protests - PBHangingChad - 8:52am 8/13/19 (50) [View All]
- So how would suggest that the EI interfere more in their domestic affairs when you oppose doing that - Frank L - 1:37pm 8/13/19
  - We are currently addressing the situation with Trump. Not like the three former Presidents - PBHangingChad - 1:43pm 8/13/19
    - Not responsive. Why should either the EU or the US comment or do anything about a domestic - Frank L - 1:45pm 8/13/19
      - You've just been PBHed. Nonsense abounds and he's making insanity logical. - jimbasil - 1:50pm 8/13/19
        I feel like everyone keeps asking him to explain his posts. - LehighND - 2:16pm 8/13/19
        At least he's not counting the number of coal miners in Ohio. [NT] - Cole - 2:19pm 8/13/19
        Yes. I hate when people do that all the time! - LehighND - 2:26pm 8/13/19
        
        That’s quite an admission by you JimBo. Thanks. [NT] - PBHangingChad - 1:53pm 8/13/19
      - Stop you know better. If you don’t know why I won’t help you. Second largest economy. Please. [NT] - PBHangingChad - 1:48pm 8/13/19
        Explain yourself. I want to read this. [NT] - Frank L - 1:50pm 8/13/19
- Wow. They stormed the HKG airport. Rioter took baton from policeman, started beating him with it. [LINK] [IMAGE] - NedoftheHill - 1:22pm 8/13/19
- The EU types have no morals - CC72 - 1:07pm 8/13/19
  - Their morals like ours are subjected to their interests. - Frank L - 1:36pm 8/13/19
    - Agree but with social media, unlike Tiananmen Square this will be broadcast global. Big difference. [NT] - PBHangingChad - 1:40pm 8/13/19
      - So......it’s still neither in our or the EU’s interest to get involved with this. - Frank L - 1:47pm 8/13/19
        I won’t take part in your stupidity. You know the answer. [NT] - PBHangingChad - 1:50pm 8/13/19
        As usual you have no cogent answer. Again, how does it serve our interests to get involved with this - Frank L - 1:53pm 8/13/19
        Ok follow closely. China is a failed state. They will collapse. No freedom no commerce. Do you - PBHangingChad - 1:57pm 8/13/19
        So they are a failed state yet will soon overwhelm us unless we fight a trade war with them right - Frank L - 2:01pm 8/13/19
        See my response to your other enlightened friend. It’s communism you nut job. They will never - PBHangingChad - 2:08pm 8/13/19
        I got this, Frank L. - LehighND - 2:13pm 8/13/19
        Yes I am you are arguing that China is not? Is that your position? Please give us the reasons. [NT] - PBHangingChad - 2:17pm 8/13/19
        I don't understand the question. - LehighND - 2:18pm 8/13/19
        Guess [NT] - PBHangingChad - 2:19pm 8/13/19
        I did. I think I got it. - LehighND - 2:24pm 8/13/19
        
        Isn't this the best they've ever done in their, I don't know. 5000 year history? - LehighND - 1:59pm 8/13/19
        And, so? You have this idea that communism and capitalism can exist equally? Is that your theory? - PBHangingChad - 2:04pm 8/13/19
        I'm sorry, how did we get on that? I don't even understand my theory, to tell the truth. - LehighND - 2:08pm 8/13/19
        No but tell me why, except your hatred for Trump, you would support China in any way? [NT] - PBHangingChad - 2:11pm 8/13/19
        He’s not supporting China, neither am I. Ironically, enough I’m supporting Orange's - Frank L - 2:23pm 8/13/19
        
        How am I supporting China? - LehighND - 2:15pm 8/13/19
- What has the President done to speak out in support of the protests? - LehighND - 10:14am 8/13/19
  - Nothing, which for once is the right play here at this time. [NT] - Frank L - 1:48pm 8/13/19
    - II don't know. - LehighND - 1:54pm 8/13/19
      - They are shitting on their own lawn. Meddling will make it worse. - Frank L - 1:58pm 8/13/19
  - What good would that do? [NT] - CC72 - 1:07pm 8/13/19
    - What good would it do for "liberals and media types as well as Wall St executives" to speak out more - LehighND - 1:41pm 8/13/19
      - So you think Trump saying “Leave Your Hong Kong Alone” would deescalate the Commies? [NT] - CC72 - 1:45pm 8/13/19
        Let me think about that. - LehighND - 1:49pm 8/13/19
  - Would that be in the interests of the United States? - NedoftheHill - 12:24pm 8/13/19
    - Does he? - LehighND - 1:42pm 8/13/19
      - Does it matter if he’s making the right play? [NT] - Frank L - 1:49pm 8/13/19
        Posted in the wrong place? - LehighND - 1:52pm 8/13/19
        I’m saying that we know what Orange is and how he makes up his mind. - Frank L - 1:55pm 8/13/19
        This is why I usually give foreign policy a wide berth. - LehighND - 2:05pm 8/13/19
        I get your point. - Frank L - 2:39pm 8/13/19
    - Probably not [NT] - CC72 - 1:08pm 8/13/19
  - Nothing. After the PLA comes in he will have to comment. But no warnings, etc. He - PBHangingChad - 10:18am 8/13/19
- Agreed. Pretty incredible. China is far more important than Russia. - NedoftheHill - 9:01am 8/13/19
  - Non Hong Kong police are in amongst the regular Hong Kong police - CC72 - 1:03pm 8/13/19