In an article entitled "Recession Math for People Who Don’t Like Math," the big reveal is not so much the secret details of economics math, but rather that their headlines are two short to allow them to be accurate.
Per Bloomberg: The downturn will be less awful than many headlines convey
We’ve seen some frightening headlines about how much the U.S. economy could shrink in the April through June quarter because of the Covid-19 pandemic. For example: “Coronavirus will send US GDP down a startling 13%: Deutsche Bank predicts.”
That headline is easy to misinterpret. If you’re just tuning into economics journalism [you hillbilly you], you might assume that Deutsche Bank is predicting that U.S. economic output will be 13% smaller in the second quarter than it was in the first quarter. But that’s not what the bank is forecasting.
As the body of the story explains, 13% is the predicted annual rate of decline—that is, how much the economy would shrink over a full year if it kept shrinking for four straight quarters as quickly as it’s expected to in the second quarter. Deutsche Bank doesn’t think the contraction will continue at that pace. In fact, it’s looking for a second-half rebound.
Is it really a "misinterpretation" of a headline if you read it accurately? WTF.
So, according to Bloomberg, the predicted 13% drop is really 3.4%. And yet, yesterday, in an interview I linked below, Bloomberg said the STL Fed. Reserve President predicted "an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product,"...not GDP rate...in the body of the article, so space was not an issue. So, which is it...will GDP drop 3.4%...or 50%. Obviously, no one knows, but a spread that big between the experts should be as disconcerting as the numbers themselves.
Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/recession-math-for-people-who-don-t-like-math?srnd=businessweek-v2