I have been knee deep in this mail ballot litigation since July.
Had estimates of how many were out in each county, and you didn’t need to be a weatherman to determine how the wind was blowing on who would vote that way. Was reasonably confident Biden would win here based on that alone. Also knew how the count was going to come in. By law, the mail ballots couldn’t even be opened until Election Day. Our same day count is pretty fast here, so I knew that would come in quick and skew Orange. Then the mail votes would come in and overwhelm the same day count in favor of Biden. Knew that even in the red counties the mail vote was gonna be big for Joe. Really, not that hard. Also, knew they would count through the night as they promised to do just that.
Wasn’t a reach to post around midnight that Biden would win close.