The absent minded professor type of student with 99th percentile test scores but very little drive resulting in mediocre grades, who excels when leading a group, but hates competition and takes a back seat when challenged?...maybe being a smarter fish in a smaller pond while maturity develops is better than being at a top 20 school with a competitive environment. Maybe.
The kid with merely above average (but not top) smarts, but with drive and motivation through the roof, who relishes competition and loves being challenged?...maybe being at a top 20 school is best for their long term success. Maybe.
The smart kid who should succeed easily, but struggles due to stressing out over things too much?...maybe a highly competitive environment isn't the best option. Maybe.
[But, they will look like they are happy if we only look at their Facebook posts and Christmas card letters. I think we all agree on that.]