Putting aside America’s moral obligations to defend Ukraine, play out the long game costs and assume the United States decided three months ago that Russia’s invasion into Ukraine wasn’t our problem.
Notwithstanding the remarkable courage of the Ukraine people and soldiers, the map would look much different now. Ukraine needed our beans, bullets, and bandages. The tank killer weapons were a difference maker. [And our leadership in unifying NATO and convincing the EU to apply economic sanctions was key. That leadership would have rang hollow had we not spent billions in military aid, putting our money were our voice were]
I have no doubt Ukraine would resist a Russian occupation for a long time. But, the refugee crisis over a long period of time would have had a costly ripple effect. Supporting the resistance over a long period of time is costly. Worse, the NATO military map is much different if Russia is at the Polish border. Now we are forced to build up US military presence in Europe, and we are back to the Cold War.
A defeated Ukraine would have heightened the prospects of WW III. See where $40 billion gets you in that scenario.
Ukraine may have to make some difficult decisions in the coming weeks. So might the United States in defining “the mission” and “objective” going forward. Crushing Putin may not have the will of the American people and pocketbooks. It may be that Putin carves off a piece of Ukraine and the world continues to deny him imports, reduce demand for his oil, and deny Russia access to the world’s financial platforms.
Whether it is infrastructure, climate change, a pandemic, education, health care, or national security ….. there are always cost considerations when committing tax dollars, and when withholding tax dollars.