Putin is desperately throwing everything he has on the line to force a quick settlement, including the end to sanctions.
With his sheer numerical advantage he shall take Dunbas... but stall there.
The west is withholding critical weapons from Ukraine to pressure for a settlement.
However, Ukraine cannot afford to give up its Southern ports or it becomes land locked and will wither and die.
It will never surrender without those ports.
Perhaps there will be a ceasefire after Putin takes Dunbas and declares victory.
Ironically, he will have demolished the Russian section of Ukraine... not that he gives a shit.
And everyone knows he merely wants to refresh and come back later to take the rest of Ukraine... at any cost.
The West, especially the Germans, will cave and postpone a bigger confrontation with Russia.