The price of oil is actually set in the oil futures market. The part of oil futures that is decided by supply/demand is relatively stable and easy to figure out. For example, $50 a barrel is breaking even price (OPEC standard). No need to drop production if the prices stay above it. Global demand for oil is also easy to estimate. The uncertainty of oil futures mainly comes from and caused by politics/policy.
The policy based on your political conviction affects the oil futures price. If you decided to stop using fossils fuel, say, by 2030, it would affect the oil futures contract. To oil suppliers it doesn't make sense to upgrade equipment, explore more and drill more today. Another example, if your geopolitical policy is to have a big proxy war with oil-rich countries, you create uncertainty of oil supply, you're responsible for rising of oil future prices.
If you have a drill-baby-drill POTUS, not a promise-to-phase-out-oil POTUS, you'll send a strong message to oil suppliers for more productions and even over-production which may not be good to crowded investors, definitely good to consumers.