The most relevant facts are what’s spelled out in the four corners of the search warrant affidavit juxtaposed with what was recovered from Mar-a-Lago.
For instance, I just read a search warrant based upon information that client had a big marijuana grow room inside his house. As it turned out, the police found squat —just remnants of grow operation and old mj trimmings — nonsmokable trash. So yeah, now it’s pretty easy to attack the credibility of the investigation as bogus information (or stale in my case only because client retired from the grow game a few months earlier).
So, if the FBI recovered squat compared to what was sought in the search warrant, then good news for Team Trump. However, if the FBI found what they were looking for, then bad news for Team Trump whereby they will likely oppose unsealing the enchilada.
Of course, the really bad scenario for Trump is if there is a solid paper trail that highly classified material went to Mar-a-Lago, …. and now it’s missing.