I think the season hinges on the Georgia game
Because of the confidence that game will either instill or take away.
Beat Georgia, and confidence should be sky high and carry them to a 5-0 or 4-1 record. A good start like that will likely get them to 8 or 9 wins by season's end. If they win 9, I can honestly say Kelly deserves to keep his job.
If they lose to Georgia, I see shit spiraling out of control real fast because at 1-1 their confidence will be shot (ND teams always have fragile psyches) and with the challenging road games that immediately follow, they will probably have another 5-7 season. But then it's bye bye Kelly, which is a long-term positive.
I think they lose to Georgia, by the way, meaning 5-7 or 6-6 is most likely.
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.