Worst case scenario, 6-6.
If Brian Kelly can't get us to a top 25 finish this year, then he'll be ousted. That's going to take at least a 9-3 season.
The bad news is, that he's entirely out of mulligans. Produce this year, or else be canned.
The good news is, that maybe he's learned his lesson, and with the adjustments made in the off-season, getting us to a decent season (at least 9 wins) is quite doable, as long as he lets the coaches do their jobs.