1) We win out.
2) Georgia wins out.
3) The Big 12 and Pac 12 champs both have at least two loses. I think that's almost a given for the Pac 12 champ. It's more uncertain for the Big 12 champ. Texas upsetting Oklahoma this weekend would be a good start!
That said, I agree with your main point. We're not elite. We're very good but not elite. We're a couple NFL-caliber receivers - who can stretch the field - away from being elite.