The 2021 class is already 7 deep and they currently only have a guarantee of Kelly coaching them for a year.
Under your scenario I don't see any way he isn't given an extension and a nice raise.
For the anti-Kelly crowd, then you might as well learn to love him because he's gonna be here for a bit.
What I think is is more interesting would be if ND drops another regular season game.
Swarbrick would have to extend or fire.
Likely he extends. perhaps without a raise? Perhaps with outs? Does that force Kelly to look around?
If Swarbrick extends 9-3 Kelly with a nice raise, then that tells us all we need to know. We better for hope for Kelly 3.0.