Let's compare:
Kelly's first HC job was at the D2 level. He took over a team coming off back to back 10+ win seasons, from Tom Beck who had been hired away by Lou Holtz to be the ND offensive coordinator. Kelly's first 4 seasons were 9-3, 8-3, 6-3-2 & 8-4. Kelly didn't break out of his 8 to 9 win pattern and have an elite season (13-1) until his 11th year coaching in D2.
Fleck's first HC job was in FBS (D1) in the MAC conference. He took over a team coming off 5, 6, 7 & 4 win seasons in the previous four years.
It took Fleck only 4 years to have his first elite season (13-1) **in FBS** getting to a 13-0 record before falling to Wisconsin 24-16 in the Cotton Bowl.
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In Kelly's second HC job, he stepped up to FBS with 13 years of HC experience, into the same MAC conference where Fleck took his first job with no HC experience. He took over a team coming off 2, 3, 4 & 3 win seasons in the previous four years. It took Kelly 3 years to have his first solid season (9-4) and then he was off to Cincinnati.
In Kelly's second FBS HC job (3rd total), he stepped up to a better conference taking 16 years HC experience to the Big East. He took over a team that was viewed as on the rise under Mark Dantonio who was hired away to be the Michigan State HC. Kelly found quick success in the Big East with 3 straight 10+ win seasons his first 3 years and had his first elite FBS season (12-0 *he left before they lost in their bowl game*) in his 6th year as HC in FBS (19th season as HC overall).
Fleck's second HC job was in FBS making a huge step up to arguably the second toughest conference in all of college football (Big 10). In only his 3rd year in a major conference and only 7th year as a HC, he has Minnesota (previously a doormat of the Big 10) off to a historical 9-0 start and only 7 years into his HC career he has already beaten a top 5 ranked *FBS team*, something Kelly still hasn't done in 30 years as a HC.
Kelly certainly has more volume to his resume with 30 years as a HC vs just 7 for Fleck, but there's no debating that Fleck is on a much higher trajectory. We got Kelly when he already had 20 years experience as a HC, while Fleck will likely have his first big time HC gig by the time he has 10 years experience (if not sooner) and remember, Kelly hadn't even had his first elite season in D2 until his 11th year. Make no mistake, if we don't grab up Fleck someone else will and IF he does carry over his pattern of success to someplace like USC or FSU, we'll be watching in regret for years to come wondering....if only we had.
Just remember, there was a time before we got into all these bad hires where we coulda snatched up Tom Coughlin with ease...but this isn't a business where the hesitant or gun shy flourish.