I don't think Kelly is going anywhere on his own, least of all FSU. FSU has on-going budget issues re: overall investment in the program, etc which were a large impetus with Fisher leaving. Kelly isn't going to leave a place where he is in a great situation in re: the very issues that are plaguing the coaching search at FSU which is precisely why the job hasn't been filled yet. It would take a lot of money(his salary, investment in the program, etc. to get Kelly to move there and I don't think FSU has it.
He also has a very healthy relationship with Swarbrick so it would take a brain fuck on his part to get fired, i.e., another bad year isn't unlikely to result in his demise at ND.
While I would guess that Kelly may have a better chance at winning a NC at FSU than he does at ND, it will take him at least 5 years to even sniff it at FSU. At this point, from a contract basis anyway, Kelly would appear to be set for probably 5 years. He has no overt connections to the south/Florida that make a move like this logical. So if he has the energy/interest to rebuild that program, it is a move that makes sense. Event though we grouse about his ego, I don't think he it is so blind as to put his family through the kind of rebuild in a foreign place which he is probably in a safe space at ND until he would chose to put down coaching and head to the tv seats.