replacement.
You have to choose a point in time that it's the time to take that chance...and hopefully have experienced people do their due diligence and choose the best fit available. And then...you still take your chances after hiring. That's how it goes. There are no "sure things"...
For me, the point in time is now. We have tried Kelly for 10 years and we know what the ceiling is. There is no reason in my mind to be going further. I'd vote him off the island...
There are those here who are very content with this ceiling...for whatever reason. I do not understand this line of thinking...but I obviously know it exists.
With Kelly I know that each successful, or approaching successful, regular season will end with an embarrassing trip to the woodshed. To be honest, had Michigan laid down in Ann Arbor, ND would be going to a major bowl against a quality opponent and the humiliation would have been delivered there. At least with a middling bowl you get a middling opponent who may be unmotivated. Kelly has an 80% shot of pulling off a victory in the mid to bad bowls.
I get that Kelly's three years of 10 wins or better gets him the extension that'll put him ahead of Holtz and Rockne in wins. Unfortunate in my book.
I am well aware that my view has no foothold with the decision makers. So be it, I always root for the team to do well.