Please join us for very special CFP history lesson (BLUF: 13th data point over-rated, no proof ND needs to be undefeated for playoff berth)
Total Finalists = 28
Of those:
28 had no more than one loss
24* Conference Champs (including a 6-0 2020 Buckeyes)
11* Undefeated (including a 6-0 2020 Buckeyes)
1 Conference runner-up (10-1 Notre Dame…no 13th data point)
3 teams that did not play the fabled 13th game, including an undefeated 2018 ND, and:
2 1-loss teams that failed to make their conference championship game (KEY POINT HERE)
When evaluating who DIDN’T make the playoffs, but could be considered close we have 32 additional teams (P5 champion, P5 1-loss, ranked Group-of-5 champ). Let’s slice them by losses (2020 messes up model a bit):
6 undefeated
4 were undefeated and played >10 games (*including 2020 Coastal Carolina)
2 more undefeated played < 10 games (*2020 Cincinnati and San Jose State)
14 had 1-loss (*including 3 1-loss P5 playing <10 games)
2 teams had only one loss – in their conference championship game (KEY POINT HERE)
10 had more than 2 losses (included because they were P5 conference champs or a G5 ranked champ)
When we look at who made it, and who didn’t, we find a few key indicators. Who didn’t make it has 3 groups, the disqualified, the long-shots, and the “I-was-robbed”
Disqualified:
Any team with >2 losses (0/12 teams)
Any team outside of P5/ND (0/14 teams)
Long-shots:
Teams that lost in their conference championship games 1/3 (the only one to make it was ND this year, and we only played 11 games…no 13th data point)
The “I-was-robbed” (won a P5 conference with 1-loss, or jumped by a non-P5 winner):
The one-loss 2014 Big-12 co-Champs (0/2…didn’t have a champ game, but also Baylor lost bad to an unranked team, and TCU lost to Baylor)
2016 2-loss Penn State/Oklahoma & 2017 2-loss Ohio State/USC…technically in 2 categories, disqualified for >2 losses and “I-was-robbed” because they were replaced in 2016/2017 by 1-loss Ohio State/Alabama teams who didn’t even play for their conference title (Penn State has legit gripe here…but did get absolutely crushed by Michigan that year)
2018 1-loss Ohio State…passed by undefeated ND (boohoo)
So what can we actually pull from all of this? Playoff likelihood
Very high undefeated P5/ND (11/11 so far)
Very high 1-loss P5 champ (14/17)
High 1-loss P5/ND team (17/26…including 3 from 2020 with <10 games played)
High undefeated FBS (11/17…including from 2020 who played <10 games)
Medium 1-loss and didn’t play in a championship game (2/5) KEY POINT
Medium 1-loss P5/ND non-champion (3/8)
Low 1-loss P5 whose sole loss was in championship game (1/3) KEY POINT
TLDR: You can safely book tickets to playoffs if you: are undefeated P5/ND (100%), a 1-loss P5 champ (82%). You still have a good bet as 1-loss P5/ND team (65%). DON'T LOSE IN A CONFERNCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME. If you play in a conference, you better hope your 1-loss isn’t in the conference championship game…you have a better chance to make playoffs if you’re lucky enough to lose yourself out of that game than if you make it and lose. Looking at the data, ND has a pretty decent chance to make the playoffs if they lose only 1 game, especially if they beat a highly ranked opponent or 2. It’s actually better to lose to an unranked foe earlier in the season than a highly ranked foe late in the season (see Ohio State, Oklahoma). For those concerned about poor-performance bias, Oklahoma made the playoffs 4 times, is 0-4 in the playoffs, and was 1-3 in the BCS, with their sole victory their first BCS game.