CFP...nothing else.
I appreciate your collection of statistics...but my belief is that it takes a special set of circumstances for a 1 loss ND team to get into the CFP (with 2020 being EXTREMELY special) and that ND's (Kelly's) track record is making it increasingly difficult.
Your belief is that the Committee will analyze each year on its own merits. My belief is that they are human and will consciously or unconsciously factor in what has been seen repeatedly with Kelly.
I'm not saying it's right...but it is what I fully expect at this point...