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A statistical analysis of Notre Dame and USC vs. their opponents' season averages

Author: MarkHarman (7276 Posts - Original UHND Member)
Posted at 10:04 pm on Nov 21, 2022
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I did this with Clemson, a couple of you may recall. I analyzed how well the offenses and defenses of Notre Dame and USC fared against their opponents' season averages in each game, totaled the results and divided them by the number of games played.

Notre Dame's offense has outperformed their opponents' defenses by 4.71 points per game; USC's by 12.93 ppg.
Notre Dame's defense has outperformed their opponents' offenses by 6.64 ppg; USC's by 0.49 ppg.

Total outperforming: Notre Dame 11.35 ppg; USC 13.42 ppg. So the slight edge should go to USC. But as Lee Corso says, "Not so fast, my friend!" Let's take a little closer look.

USC's defense has a disturbing (for them) trend: They have allowed each of their last 5 opponents to score more than their season average, by an average of 7.1 ppg. Meanwhile, Notre Dame's offense has started to click, outperforming each of their last 5 opponents' defenses, and by an average of 13.2 ppg. A fair inference can be made that Notre Dame has a great chance score quite a bit over their 30.1 season average. Another factor to consider is that in 7 out of their 11 games, USC's defense has allowed their opponents to score more than their season averages.

What about USC's offense? If they perform averagely (yes, that's a word!), they would score about 33 points (12.93 + 20.3). But that doesn't take into account that Notre Dame has, in 9 out of 11 games, allowed fewer points than their opponents' season averages. A fair inference can be made that USC will actually have a hard time scoring 33 points.

Do not be surprised if Notre Dame scores 38 points or so, and do not be surprised if USC scores 30 or fewer. In fact, the trends suggest this has a decent chance of happening. But as we all know, the game is not played on paper.


Replies to: "A statistical analysis of Notre Dame and USC vs. their opponents' season averages"

  • A statistical analysis of Notre Dame and USC vs. their opponents' season averages - MarkHarman - 10:04pm 11/21/22 (24) [View All]
    • USC may very well win and ND has a entire list of their own issues but - NDNEIL - 11:05am 11/22/22
      • In all honesty, looking at how we were playing early in the season.. - Chrisb - 8:39am 11/23/22
        • Ayup, and their D especially against the run isn’t good. No mistakes and if we red zone cash in, - Frank L - 10:33am 11/23/22
    • Nice cherry picking [NT] - rosegreenpurple - 11:03am 11/22/22
      • Not sure what I "cherry picked"...but here's more - MarkHarman - 6:02pm 11/22/22
        • What u missed= Turnover margin: ND= -3 USC = +20 [NT] - rosegreenpurple - 10:16pm 11/22/22
          • bottom line to ALL fans: "BE OBJECTIVE"...yes, I know it hurts. [NT] - rosegreenpurple - 10:23pm 11/22/22
            • Objectivity: Both ND and USC are +6 in turnover margin their last 5 games [NT] - MarkHarman - 6:24pm 11/23/22
              • STATS for only last 5 games: Talk about cherry-picking?!.... - rosegreenpurple - 10:42pm 11/24/22
            • Objectivity is the opposite of fandom. What did you say before the Clemson game by the way? - Frank L - 10:34am 11/23/22
              • re: fandom=agree and I said Clemson would smash ND; but I was being OBJECTIVE... - rosegreenpurple - 8:14am 11/25/22
              • Objectivity : do YOU remember the STANFORD game? HELLO?.... - rosegreenpurple - 10:55pm 11/24/22
            • ND vs SC: Partial analysis, not comprehensive - rosegreenpurple - 10:41pm 11/22/22
      • I'll eat those cherries [NT] - jrdjr84 - 5:31pm 11/22/22
    • Question - IrishNC - 7:44am 11/22/22
      • Re: Question - MarkHarman - 8:37am 11/22/22
        • Re: Question - IrishNC - 10:21am 11/22/22
    • Appreciate you playing the game on paper...even if they can't. [NT] - TakethetrainKnute - 7:05am 11/22/22
    • Great job! [NT] - ColeyO - 11:43pm 11/21/22
    • Sold! Let’s do this! [NT] - LanceManion - 11:07pm 11/21/22
    • Nicely done. [NT] - tky21 - 10:43pm 11/21/22
    • Yes they are but dang!!!! Really good stuff. [NT] - Frankx - 10:28pm 11/21/22
    • You put in the work, man - great post. [NT] - murph78 - 10:19pm 11/21/22
    • Really good stuff here. Grrrrreat read. Thanks! [NT] - jimbasil - 10:11pm 11/21/22
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