In 2018, we drew Clemson (+31.2 P.P.G. differential). In 2020, we drew Alabama (+29.1).
This year, Michigan gets in with the 56th-ranked schedule (which included a gift against Illinois) and gets to open with T.C.U. (+15.3, having just lost to Kansas State).
We really need multiple favorable "bounces" to win it all someday, and that will include the quality of opponents in the postseason that we get matched with.