NFL 1st/2nd round draft picks command rookie salaries between $7-19 million, which is within the range that this [alleged] figure of $13 million falls. Of course, NFL 1st/2nd round draft picks have been tested in the ranks of college football, so at least you have a clearer sense of what you're buying as an NFL franchise. Paying the equivalent of late first-round NFL draft pick rookie salary to a totally unproven prospect? Given that: (1) any given recruiting class has roughly 300 or so 4-star recruits, (2) roughly 20% of the 4-star prospects in any given recruiting class get drafted to the NFL, and (3) on average somewhere around 20-24 4-star recruits in any given class are taken within the first two rounds (around 6% spanning both round, but only half of that in round 1), it seems somewhat foolish to throw what amounts to late 1st round draft pick money at a kid who has about a 3-6% chance of actually panning out to be the kind of talent who might actually command that type of money 3 or 4 years down the road.