From the perspective of just progressing at the same rate as year 1 to year 2, the status quo would be a 10-2 regular season plus one post season win to finish 11-2.
A level headed person could probably look back at that and say, you know we took a gamble and hired a HC with zero experience, it hasn't imploded yet, he's making gradual progress year to year and has a .769 winning percentage after his first 3 seasons ever doing this thing, maybe we're going to be alright this time.
But I'm not feeling like status quo. Considering this schedule! Considering these coordinators! Considering the talent on this roster! Considering the jump that all the successful ones have made in year 3 at ND! I want more...10-2 should be the absolute floor for this regular season. Anything less is regression and is an absolute failure in year 3.
With that we should be expecting 11-1 or better to consider this season a success. That would hopefully lead to a minimum of one playoff win and a final record of 12-2. This would be something we could point to and say yeah I think we got the right guy after a .775 first three years.
A 10-2 regular season would be mildly disappointing but anything less than that and I think his seat is starting to warm.