Only because if you take all the guys who eventually proved to be top tier head coaches, I'd say very few of them showed signs of being a top tier head coach in only their 3rd year ever being a HC.
We just never see that learning curve because because most first time HCs are doing it smaller levels out of the limelight. By the time we get to see them they've usually already gotten to learn by mistakes.
You'll be hard pressed to convince me that Freeman will be the best he'll ever be this season. Now if he starts regressing that could be an indicator of already hitting his ceiling...that's where the record comes in. If he goes 9 wins then 10 wins then 11-12 then 12-13, etc, etc...that is consistent progress and is a strong indicator he's still on an upward trajectory.