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Strength on schedule is going to play a bigger part in the selections than they have in the past

Count the bids. You can fairly well assume that the SEC and the Big 10 are going to get three teams on: the best non-Power 5 team is in: likely at least 3 teams for a combination of ACC/Big 12. At that point there are already 10 teams in without even getting to the "getting-in" decisions the committee is going to have to make. That really only leaves two spots open and I think there will be 2 teams each from the ACC/Big 12. Therefore it is likely there will be one real spot "open" for discussion

A peek at the respective schedules:
Alabama: Georgia, Wisconsin, USC, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma.

ND: Texas A&M, Louisville, FSU, USC, Army, Navy, GT etc etc.

(excuse me while the realistic ND homer in me snickers at the comparison.)

While the year has yet to play out. the NIU loss is going to kill ND in comparison to the 3 losses Alabama might have. Both Louisville and A&M are going to have to get in (and both are unlikely at this point) for ND to have any chance against a 3 loss Alabama assuming at this point that Georgia doesn't do a face plant. It is quite possible that ND will not have win against a team that makes it to the playoffs whereas Alabama will have at least one.

You also make a massive assumption, based on the way ND has played to date, that ND is only going to have one loss.