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We have to look good getting there and that means impressive wins (i.e., game over by 1st half) in every game with the possible exception of USC. SOS is going to play a bigger part than the ratings, imo. For example, beating Army and Navy will pale in comparison to beating SEC/BIG teams of comparable records.

We also have to hope that our opponents are also successful, particularly A&M (no worse than 9-3), Louisville (no worse than 9-3), and USC (no worse than 8-4). Any of those teams doing better than that would be very helpful. Louisville almost has to beat either Miami or Clemson for us to get in. USC beating PSU would be a big help.

The NIU loss just killed us from a real respectability aspect. And Florida St shitting the bed does us no good. In the end, at 11-1 we will have a nasty loss, probably the worst of any team in contention, and unless the "power" teams on our schedule do well the rest of the year, we are in a bad place. Even though A&M success might help, if they merely go 9-3, the committee will compare our schedule and various SEC teams and look at the comparison of the rest of the schedules. We lose!

I think that some "thinkers" here that opine that we won't lose out to a 3 loss team from the SEC/Big are naive. Our schedule is weak in comparison and we will be absent a high value win....unless A&M is a tournament team, for that matter, Louisville may have to be also). For example, there is little chance that we get picked over a 3 loss Georgia considering that 2 of those 3 losses will likely to have been to tourney teams. And that is also true of a 3 loss Alabama.

I don't think the polls will play much part this year since there are many high-quality teams playing each other. For example, an 8-3 Alabama will have at least two quality wins to get there and the 2 of the three losses will be to be teams better than virtually any team we play sans A&M.