The other risk is ACC/BIg 12 getting two teams each

Which, unless the ACC shits the bed, is probable as some of the committee members from those conferences will no doubt hear the chatter that ND should get in a conference and they will likely get some sympathy from their SEC/BIG cohorts.

Assuming that, there is really only one spot in play for ND (3 SEC, 3 Big, 2 ACC, 2 Big 12, 1 Group of 5).

We better hope that at least 2 teams on our schedule get in the mix or we are dead and NIU is that self-inflicted wound.

It is still pretty early.