we are way off from each other on the likelihood of making the playoffs at 11-1 or 10-2.
You say we have 50% chance of just making it in at 11-1, I think we have better than 50% chance of hosting a 1st round game at 11-1.
There are very few things in college football I'd put at 100%, but I think we are 99.9% in if we go 11-1.
Interestingly, you are quite higher than me at 10%, on our odds of getting in at 10-2...I say at 10-2 we only have about a 3% chance of getting in.
I'm not basing this on how good or bad I think ND is, but rather what the landscape around us is going to look like.