I haven't seen a single modeling site with a 11-1 ND team out of the playoffs. ND is ~60% to make playoff ≠ 11-1 ND 60% to make it. The 40% is because ND still plays 2 ranked opponents and USC.
The sportswriters who have an 11-1 ND out of the playoffs fall into 3 categories.
1. Clickbait hacks who are too stupid to understand math and know any better.
2. Clickbait hacks who know better but need clicks.
3. Moronic mama's basement-livin' bloggers with a platform for some reason.
Link: ESPN's Allstate Playoff Predictor
Replies to: "Where are you seeing that? ESPN FPI has 11-1 ND 99% chance to make playoffs"
- Updated playoff projections (various sites): ND in some, out some. Ambiguity for me... - SteveM - 12:23pm 10/22/24
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- This is not necessary. We have a 63% chance to make the playoffs. I know this because some doofus at - BaronVonZemo - 5:26pm 10/22/24
- Someone earlier mentioned no Power 4 or 5 team with only one loss - MarkHarman - 1:15pm 10/22/24
- Our percentage of making it if we win out are 60ish so that makes sense. - ndphysics - 12:37pm 10/22/24
- LOL you really, seriously, honestly, not just fucking with us..think at 11-1 we have a 60% chance? - Chrisb - 8:37pm 10/22/24
- Where are you seeing that? ESPN FPI has 11-1 ND 99% chance to make playoffs [LINK]
- Turkish - 12:51pm 10/22/24
- 11-1 Notre Dame will always be in. 10-2 with this schedule and I think we are definitely out. [NT] - tky21 - 8:55pm 10/22/24
- ND beat 1 current ranked Power opponent, (A&M). Wins over ranked Army / Navy won't mean squat. [NT]
- SteveM - 1:01pm 10/22/24
- Are you going to admit you're wrong when 11-1 ND makes playoff? - Turkish - 1:06pm 10/22/24
- No, I surely hope we make the playoffs. My questions weren't rhetorical... - SteveM - 1:46pm 10/22/24
- No calculator can account for all the variables a committee will consider. - ndphysics - 1:50pm 10/22/24
- Your questions aren't rhetorical, they dismiss 25+ years of history and data - Turkish - 2:46pm 10/22/24
- Which team above us has a weaker schedule let alone teams [NT]
- WoodstockIrish - 8:05am 10/23/24
- Penn St, Clemson, Iowa St, BYU - Turkish - 8:24am 10/23/24
- All have played teams in the top 10, have 2-3 ranked opponents - WoodstockIrish - 10:10am 10/23/24
- We're ranked behind them now because we lost to NIU and 3 of them are undefeated still - Turkish - 1:43pm 10/23/24
- It's lovely how wrong you are. The teams I mentioned have beaten nobody. [NT] - Turkish - 1:38pm 10/23/24
- Since Clemson was motor boated at home, they haven't played a single ranked team...in fact - Chrisb - 11:10am 10/23/24
- They played #1, will play #19 and will play a top ten 10 in their conference - WoodstockIrish - 12:23pm 10/23/24
- You're talking about what they WILL do, current ranking is about what you have done, we HAVE beaten - Chrisb - 1:20pm 10/23/24
- Because my comment originally to the Turk guy was that several tea [NT]
- WoodstockIrish - 10:27pm 10/23/24
- Re: Because my comment originally to the Turk guy - WoodstockIrish - 10:28pm 10/23/24
- "I agree with what ESPN said over the weekend" but that's not what they said.. - Chrisb - 9:17am 10/24/24
- Re: Because my comment originally to the Turk guy - WoodstockIrish - 10:28pm 10/23/24
- Oh yeah, and.. - Chrisb - 1:25pm 10/23/24
- Because my comment originally to the Turk guy was that several tea [NT]
- WoodstockIrish - 10:27pm 10/23/24
- You're talking about what they WILL do, current ranking is about what you have done, we HAVE beaten - Chrisb - 1:20pm 10/23/24
- They played #1, will play #19 and will play a top ten 10 in their conference - WoodstockIrish - 12:23pm 10/23/24
- All have played teams in the top 10, have 2-3 ranked opponents - WoodstockIrish - 10:10am 10/23/24
- Penn St, Clemson, Iowa St, BYU - Turkish - 8:24am 10/23/24
- Your rational and fact-based arguments are not appreciated around here, pal - Nigel Tufnel - 5:05pm 10/22/24
- A 1-loss SEC or Big 10 team who then loses 2nd game in the conference championship - WoodstockIrish - 12:45pm 10/23/24
- So what? It's a 12 team playoff [NT] - Turkish - 1:40pm 10/23/24
- A 1-loss SEC or Big 10 team who then loses 2nd game in the conference championship - WoodstockIrish - 12:45pm 10/23/24
- Which team above us has a weaker schedule let alone teams [NT]
- WoodstockIrish - 8:05am 10/23/24
- Your questions aren't rhetorical, they dismiss 25+ years of history and data - Turkish - 2:46pm 10/22/24
- No calculator can account for all the variables a committee will consider. - ndphysics - 1:50pm 10/22/24
- No, I surely hope we make the playoffs. My questions weren't rhetorical... - SteveM - 1:46pm 10/22/24
- Are you going to admit you're wrong when 11-1 ND makes playoff? - Turkish - 1:06pm 10/22/24
- That link shows 56% [NT]
- ndphysics - 12:54pm 10/22/24
- 56% to make playoffs TODAY. Not 56% to make playoffs as 1-loss in a month - Turkish - 1:04pm 10/22/24
- Ok. I missed that part. Will see. It seems hard to believe it’s that high given - ndphysics - 1:48pm 10/22/24
- Twists are inevitable, and will almost exclusively benefit ND - Turkish - 2:47pm 10/22/24
- Ok. I missed that part. Will see. It seems hard to believe it’s that high given - ndphysics - 1:48pm 10/22/24
- 56% to make playoffs TODAY. Not 56% to make playoffs as 1-loss in a month - Turkish - 1:04pm 10/22/24