"I agree with what ESPN said over the weekend" but that's not what they said..

They said by their models if we beat GA Tech we had a 63% chance to make the playoffs and if we lost to them it dropped to 20%. They said they didn't agree with the 20% and thought if we have 2 losses it drops to 0%, which I feel is close to accurate.

But here's where you're really off..they said the same model has ND at 99% in the playoffs at 11-1, which lines up with what I said in our previous discussion on this.

We probably have almost a 60% chance to host a playoff game at 11-1.