My "100% in" scenario is a game changer if it occurs.
If we go 11-1 and A&M wins the SEC Championship, I think we are 100% in and our chances of hosting a game go up to around 80+%.
As things stand now, first round byes would be Oregon, Miami, A&M, and BYU. ND would be the only team with a win over one of the bye teams.
Even if you play it forward to say Tosu beats Oregon in rematch to earn the B1G bye and Clemson knocks off Miami to earn the ACC bye, and A&M wins the SEC.
Now you'd have just 2 teams (both with 1 loss) with wins over bye teams: ND and Oregon (in this scenario A&M would likely be the #1 overall seed).
You're looking at probably 12-1 Oregon at #5, 11-1 Notre Dame at #6, 12-1 Miami at #7, and the next best SEC or B1G at #8.
A&M winning the SEC would be HUGE for us if we finish 11-1...we should all be the biggest A&M fans on the planet right now.