That's not realism. I've presented the data going back 3 decades that an 11-1 ND is in

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That's not realism. I've presented the data going back 3 decades that an 11-1 ND is in

Author: Turkish (1235 Posts - Joined: Oct 22, 2007)

Posted at 4:38 pm on Nov 4, 2024

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You guys are positing game outcome scenarios that are possible if not likely.

However, you're manufacturing a false narrative that 11-1 ND would be left out by the playoff committee, even though years of CFP and BCS data shows that 1-loss teams finish top-10 100% of the time (actually Top 7). ND got into the CFP only a few years back over an undefeated Ohio State.

There is no cabal. The committee is sourced broadly with no apparent bias for SEC/BIG or against ND.

Replies to: "That's not realism. I've presented the data going back 3 decades that an 11-1 ND is in"

If a top ten team loses a close conference championship game to another top 10 team - ndphysics - 5:11am 11/4/24 (43) [View All]
- Any "Big 4" team in their respective championship games with < 3 losses are likely in [NT] - D2 - 1:08pm 11/4/24
  - It's really the Big 2 (SEC / Big10). 2 loss ACC and Big12 teams will be wannabees - SteveM - 1:28pm 11/4/24
    - Don't agree with lots of possibilities - D2 - 2:08pm 11/4/24
      - You’re not allowed to talk about that on here - WoodstockIrish - 3:56pm 11/4/24
        That's not realism. I've presented the data going back 3 decades that an 11-1 ND is in - Turkish - 4:38pm 11/4/24
        How many 12 teams playoff with the current conferences existed the past 3 decades? - D2 - 12:36pm 11/5/24
        The Rankings Methodology has not changed. Other issues with your arguments - Turkish - 6:53pm 11/5/24
        We do agree on your last point which is what matters - D2 - 11:47pm 11/5/24
        
        While I respect your information and I personally think we're in if we go 11-1, I also think - Chrisb - 5:00pm 11/4/24
        It's reasonable to discuss especially if the new playoff format changes the ranking methodology - Turkish - 5:20pm 11/4/24
      - You’re not allowed to talk about that on here - WoodstockIrish - 3:56pm 11/4/24
        This whole post is about conjecture, you know, a theory or unproven idea. - bill rekles - 5:00pm 11/4/24
        On that we agree! Win out and we have a 60/40 chance of making CFP 12 - WoodstockIrish - 6:52pm 11/4/24
        Maybe not, but ESPN analytics thingy says we are 99% in if we win out. [NT] - Chrisb - 7:46pm 11/4/24
        
        That's a good guesstimate. [NT] - SteveM - 7:19pm 11/4/24
      - I mentioned earlier an Elite cabal of teams with solid signatiture win histories... - SteveM - 2:35pm 11/4/24
- Thanks again Jack. [NT] - Hibakusha - 11:11am 11/4/24
- I can see all these conference teams in (worst case scenario for ND) - MarkHarman - 8:20am 11/4/24
  - No way Army selected above Boise State. [NT] - SteveM - 10:15am 11/4/24
    - Especially in that scenario. If ND is 11-1 then Army is no longer undefeated [NT] - Irish_Demon - 10:25am 11/4/24
      - Undefeated Army has faced only 1 opponent with a winning record, a 5-3 Lehigh that lost to Bucknell [NT] - SteveM - 10:58am 11/4/24
  - SEC could get 5 - bobdrake - 9:04am 11/4/24
- It shouldn't knock them out of the playoff, should only affect where they are seeded. [NT] - Chrisb - 7:44am 11/4/24
- It won’t, there could be 2-3 2 loss teams that make it in - WoodstockIrish - 6:38am 11/4/24
- The committee already said championship losses won't count again teams. - AlbanyIRISH - 6:06am 11/4/24
  - so losing in the conf champ game is ok, but not playing in one should be punished. - und67 - 8:56am 11/4/24
    - ^^^^absolutely this^^^^ - Nigel Tufnel - 9:32am 11/4/24
  - I don't think they said 'won't count against them'...but that they won't be unduly punished - Chrisb - 8:51am 11/4/24
  - At some point, the conference structure will need to go away if this CFP is to work - LanceManion - 8:23am 11/4/24
    - There is no league with conferences still in place as u suggest - ndphysics - 8:39am 11/4/24
      - Yep. If I were ACC/BIG12/others, I'd create a competing FB league with its own championship - LanceManion - 9:00am 11/4/24
  - Yes we are. I still think we Aren’t guaranteed anything winning out. Depends on other factors [NT] - ndphysics - 7:46am 11/4/24
  - Rightfully so - WoodstockIrish - 6:40am 11/4/24
    - There are literally ZERO SEC teams that have played 6-7 ranked teams.. [LINK] - Chrisb - 8:37am 11/4/24
      - Did I say “played?”…let me go check, no - WoodstockIrish - 12:29pm 11/4/24
        This a conversation about current playoff ranking - Chrisb - 1:54pm 11/4/24
        It’s odd here how you are allowed to talk about 11-1 ND - WoodstockIrish - 4:00pm 11/4/24
        Re: It’s odd here how you are allowed to talk about 11-1 ND - Chrisb - 4:28pm 11/4/24
        Whatever…you know everything…I give up [NT] - WoodstockIrish - 6:59pm 11/4/24
        LOL...how am I acting like I know everything any more than you are? - Chrisb - 7:44pm 11/4/24
        Based on the other thread we aren’t that far off - WoodstockIrish - 9:07pm 11/4/24
        Agree fully...also not a fan of how dismissive some are regarding the loss of Morrison - Chrisb - 12:40pm 11/5/24
        Morrison is a huge loss. Plus our depth is not so deep now. [NT] - THEISMANCARR - 2:43pm 11/5/24