The past will have no reference to what happens in 2024. There is NO comparable history!.
It all depends on how the season winds down but right now, ND is clearly on the bubble and likely needs help to get in. That is not only possible but likely!
We've already seen Indiana, with a schedule significantly weaker than ND and no signature wins, leap ND in the polls. Does your 3 decades of history "explain" that?
As we wind down the schedule, the "polls" will adjust as the selection process winds up.
If both undefeated BYU and SMU play in conference championship games, they will get pick ahead of ND even if they lose those games.
There is no way a two loss OSU will not be picked. There is little chance 11-1 ND will get picked ahead of a 11-1 Indiana simple because ND's one loss will be to NIU!
Etc etc etc.
Light your candles!