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Notre Dame's path to the 6 seed

Author: Chrisb (16388 Posts - Original UHND Member)
Posted at 11:45 am on Nov 16, 2024
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-Win all of our remaining games as convincingly as possible...win out and we are 100% in, lose a game and we are 99.999% out, the more convincing we look in our wins the higher chance we have at a 6 or 7 seed instead of an 8 seed.

-Georgia beats Tennessee today and PSU struggles at Purdue, winning by only 10-14 points. The PSU struggle would be highly unlikely to alter anything now, but could come into play down the road should we dominate USC. Barring anything out of the ordinary, this would likely result in the following playoff ranking/*seeding):
1. OR, 2. Tosu(*5), 3. TX(*2), 4. PSU(*6), 5. IND(*7), 6. BYU(*3), 7. ND(*8), 8. MIA(*4), 9. Bama, 10. Ol Miss, 11. GA, 12. Tenn(*13/out), 13. BSU(*12), 14. SMU, 15. A&M

-Tosu beats Indiana next week by 14+ and PSU struggles at Minn winning an ugly nail biter. PSU struggling 2 weeks in a row could allow undefeated BYU to pass them.
This would likely result in the following playoff ranking/*seeding):
1. OR, 2. Tosu(*5), 3. TX(*2), 4. BYU(*3), 5. PSU(*6), 6. ND(*7), 7. MIA(*4), 8. Bama, 9. Ol Miss, 10. GA, 11. Tenn, 12. IND(*13/out), 13. BSU(*12), 14. SMU, 15. A&M

-A&M beats TX the following week and we beat USC by 10-14+ points. The combination of A&M now being in the SEC CCG, with PSU looking lackluster in recent weeks, and ND being one of the hottest teams in CFB over last 10 games while having two common opponents with PSU that we beat by a lot more than them, could (not would) result in them flipping ND and PSU in the playoff ranking.
This would likely result in the following playoff ranking/*seeding):
1. OR, 2. Tosu(*5), 3. BYU(*2), 4. ND(*6), 5. PSU(*7), 6. MIA(*3), 7. Bama(*4), 8. A&M, 9. Ol Miss, 10. GA, 11. TX, 12. Tenn(*13/out), 13. IND, 14. BSU(*12), 15. SMU

Predicting what happens with winners of CCG is pretty simple but predicting the losers is a bit tricky because we've seen no precedent set yet, but I'll try...

Winner of OR-Tosu rematch would obviously get #1 overall seed. If OR lost they would 100% be the #5 seed (4 seed if they could) but with Tosu I think it would depend how the game went... I could see them anywhere between 5-7 seed depending how the game went. ...for the sake of this prediction I'll say if Tosu loses its another close one and that combined with us still bearing memories of NIU loss, they only drop down to the 5 seed, leaving ND at 6, PSU at 7, and loser of Bama-A&M as the 8 seed.

If BYU remains unbeaten and wins CCG they get #2 overall seed...if unbeaten BYU loses CCG...????????
Hard for me to imagine them dropping all the way out of playoffs but don't think they'd host a game..my guess is they'd get the 11 seed and bump TX out.

Winner of Bama-A&M jumps over ACC for #3 overall seed. Winner of ACC CCG is in at the 4 seed, loser is likely out unless Miami was the loser and BYU won their CCG...then I think there would be a tough decision between Miami and Texas for that #11 spot and it would come down to what the committee values more ....

SEC vs. Not punishing CCG losers.

I don't know how it would go but I'd have my popcorn ready.

So my prediction with the above events would be Notre Dame as the #6 seed hosting either: TX, BYU, or Miami.


This message has been edited 1 time(s).

"Notre Dame by a million..Go Irish!" -Shane Gillis

Replies to: "Notre Dame's path to the 6 seed"

  • Notre Dame's path to the 6 seed - Chrisb - 11:45am 11/16/24 (8) [View All]
    • Chris, love the effort but would it not have been easier to say, - faircatchcorby - 1:51pm 11/16/24
      • Actually, no...I don't think a 6 seed is that far fetched... - Chrisb - 2:16pm 11/16/24
    • A&M should kick some Texas ass. - AlbanyIRISH - 1:30pm 11/16/24
      • You might be right...A&M even when shitty, is a tough out at home...I'd love to see A&M knock Texas - Chrisb - 1:45pm 11/16/24
    • My head hurts [NT] - D2 - 1:29pm 11/16/24
      • Sorry, abridged version: ND wins out, 100% in, 90% 8 seed, 60% 7 seed, 25% 6 seed, 5% 5 seed. [NT] - Chrisb - 1:56pm 11/16/24
    • Thank you I was putting together similar material, - Hibakusha - 12:15pm 11/16/24
      • Feel free to kick the tires..another thought, would committee be sneaky to avoid possibility of 3rd - Chrisb - 1:28pm 11/16/24
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