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What is the ceiling for a team with a 1st Year Starting QB?

Author: Turkish (1258 Posts - Joined: Oct 22, 2007)
Posted at 10:26 am on Jul 25, 2025
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Obviously, it's a National Championship. Data on 1st year starters winning a NC since 1996.

1. Craig Krenzel Ohio St. '02. Redshirt Junior non-transfer. 4th year in program. Solid game manager.
2. Matt Leinart USC '03. Redshirt sophomore who won out against *Matt Cassel in camp and won title in 1st year as starter. 3rd year in program. All-world QB recruit
3. Cam Newton Auburn '10. Redshirt Junior with 2 years with one year as a backup QB in FL, playing in 5 games, followed by a medical redshirt. After getting kicked of an Urban Meyer-led Florida Team (a real accomplishment) for stealing a laptop and cheating, he played 1 year in JUCO before being **sold to the highest bidder by his father to Auburn. Highly-sought after Blue Chip and JuCo recruit.
4. Jameis Winston FSU '13. Redshirt Sophomore. Second year in program. Best Dual Threat recruit.
5. Jake Coker Bama '15. Redshirt Senior. Competed and lost vs. Winson at FSU for 2 year, transferred to Bama where he competed and lost to be starting QB for 1 year before winning the competition the following year.
7. Trevor Lawrence Clemson '18. True Freshman generational QB recruit. Didn't lose a game until the NC the following year vs. generational LSU team that was one of the most dominant offenses of all time (at least 3 potential NFL HOFers at QB/WR with Burrow, Chase, and Jefferson).

ND certainly isn't disqualified from winning a NC with first year starter. Both QBs have 2+ offseasons (both were early enrollees). Looking at the list above, the situation that is most similar if Carr wins out is Jameis Winston. Minchey has plenty of time in the program and compares to Leinart, Coker or Craig Krenzel.

It will be a difficult climb, however, especially with the front-loaded schedule. If ND can start 1-1 or 2-0 and avoid a big loss afterwards, it is more likely now than pre-playoff era that a first year starting QB gets into the groove as a lower-seed playoff team to make a run. It also helps ND has such a strong RB room. We'll see what happens.

*Matt Cassel has one of the most interesting stories in football. He was never a starting QB in college and had a pretty good pro career (Pro Bowl 2010). In fact, he WON more NFL GAMES as a starter than he had PASSES ATTEMPTED in his whole COLLEGE CAREER.
** NCAA was not able to prove Auburn paid Newton's father after Miss St. alleged the father solicited money for Cam to transfer there.


Replies to: "What is the ceiling for a team with a 1st Year Starting QB?"

  • What is the ceiling for a team with a 1st Year Starting QB? - Turkish - 10:26am 7/25/25 (20) [View All]
    • As you point out it depends on how the rookie plays and steps into the job. We won’t have long to - Frank L - 9:09am 7/28/25
    • 'Cons are a 2.5 pt favorite! Tough place for a QB's 1st start! [NT] - irishslovak - 8:13am 7/26/25
      • They're +2.5. - AlbanyIRISH - 11:37am 7/26/25
        • I STAND CORRECTED! Bad info from a PSU fan. I should have known better!!! [NT] - irishslovak - 1:52pm 7/26/25
      • Glad cons are considered the favorite. We will be ready but so many of their fans are criminals, I - THEISMANCARR - 9:19am 7/26/25
        • Now I see we are the favorite, though by those odds it shows it will not be easy if both teams show - THEISMANCARR - 7:48am 7/28/25
        • “So many of their fans are criminals…” Source please? - WoodstockIrish - 2:31pm 7/26/25
          • Just anecdotal on my part from 1989 and 2017. I remember many of our fans being - THEISMANCARR - 8:11am 7/28/25
            • Hopefully you realize, 1989 was 36 years ago? - WoodstockIrish - 1:36pm 7/28/25
              • 2017 was only 8 years ago. And my impression of Miami fans did not change. [NT] - THEISMANCARR - 6:01pm 7/28/25
        • Yes, they have been known to fire paintballs. Worst crowd in ALL of football... [NT] - irishslovak - 10:26am 7/26/25
    • There's plenty of talent, and smart coaching, so... - ndunabomber - 5:13pm 7/25/25
      • Great post 👍 [NT] - Frankx - 5:22pm 7/25/25
    • the nasty Oline + RB group will be a HUGE factor... [NT] - KWIRISH - 11:10am 7/25/25
      • There is not a better RB group in the country. RTDB [NT] - murph78 - 9:23pm 7/25/25
        • Agreed, possible! Penn State also impressive RB room [NT] - KWIRISH - 7:10pm 7/26/25
    • Carr/Minchey are set up for success on paper. - iairishcheeks - 10:46am 7/25/25
    • Re: What is the ceiling for a team with a 1st Year Starting QB? - jonpaultoo - 10:45am 7/25/25
      • Anyone think we will see Kenny & CJ on the field at the same time in certain situations? [NT] - ELP - 11:13am 7/25/25
        • Unlikely since it is too obvious - D2 - 12:00pm 7/25/25
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