Without a big change, borderline miraculous or USC and Arkansas are absolute dog crap. 2 more losses look very real. Especially considering Navy, in modern times, gives us trouble. NC St. has been known to give us trouble and is every bit the middle of the pack school that Miami and TAMU are this century.
Boise, Purdue, Stanford, and maybe BC are the only wins I would hang my hat on at the moment. That's a pretty logical and non-emotional view. Pitt we should beat, but who knows. Syracuse, we should beat, but Angeli can sling it and has a reason to do well.
So that's 4 - 2 with two tough teams and two teams that give us fits as toss-ups along with two should wins. That's 6 - 2. If you take a 50/50 on the others, that is 8-4.
That's a logical and non-emotional take.