Looking at the schedules of the teams in front of us, it seems pretty clear to me that if we win 10 we're in.
Likely in:
OSU
Miami
Oregon
Ole Miss
If true, that means (i) Penn State is on a bubble (with likely losses to OSU, Oregon and maybe Indiana...). Also, with 6 ranked teams in front of them, OK will almost certainly end with 3 or more losses. Texas A&M vs LSU will be for 1 spot, and Indiana is probably in.
So, if you're scoring at home, that's 6 in and 3 out. Assume Texas loses to 2 of 3 to Texas A&M, Georgia, and Oklahoma, and we're 4 out. Assume Alabama makes it in, and Tennessee is out. So, that's 7 in, 5 out. If Texas Tech is in for the Big12, then Iowa State is out; 8 in, 6 out. If Georgia is in, then Ga Tech is likely out; 9 in, 7 out. Vandy ends with 3, likely 4 losses, so 9 in, 8 out. Missouri is a tough call; let's call it pro-SEC bias, and we're 10 in, 8 out.
We need USC to be Michigan; if so and we beat USC, we're ahead of Michigan, and Michigan is out. Even if that doesn't work, we likely end up team #12. Assuming any amount of chaos, we're even better off. So win and we're in.
What am I missing?
Win & We're In
Replies to: "Win & We're In"
- Win & We're In - IdahoIrish - 7:31am 10/1/25
(15) [View All]
- 1 play at a time. 1 game at a time. LFG ND! [NT] - KWIRISH - 7:28pm 10/1/25
- If any 10-2 team makes it into the playoffs, it will be ND. The $s ND brings is just too enticing. - Shadow_of_the_Dome - 1:35pm 10/1/25
- I'm nearly 100% confident we will be Top 12 by EOY. May get frozen out by a 9-3 or worse Conf Champ - Turkish - 11:19am 10/1/25
- *Nearly 100% if we win out [NT] - Turkish - 11:20am 10/1/25
- It's just win out and see what happens - wrdomerson - 10:07am 10/1/25
- Well said. We need Miami, A&M and USC to win out except for USC against us. - WoodstockIrish - 1:25pm 10/1/25
- SOS is important. So is FPI. [LINK]
- Hensou - 1:39pm 10/1/25
- Of course it is (now) - WoodstockIrish - 6:14pm 10/1/25
- SOS is important. So is FPI. [LINK]
- Hensou - 1:39pm 10/1/25
- Well said. We need Miami, A&M and USC to win out except for USC against us. - WoodstockIrish - 1:25pm 10/1/25
- I think it would be close but I think it would be hard for a committee to ignore a 10 game winning - THEISMANCARR - 9:52am 10/1/25
- Not so sure - Nigel Tufnel - 9:38am 10/1/25
- You have that backwards - AlbanyIRISH - 6:51am 10/2/25
- There is no way to tell what Big 12 team is quality year to year - wrdomerson - 10:09am 10/1/25
- I had figured this out last week, but we need 4 teams ahead of us to lose each week to jump to 12. - FoolBear - 9:33am 10/1/25
- Agree. 10 wins means 10 in a row. Probably a lower seed but in. [NT] - MuskyTommy - 8:02am 10/1/25
- Not a sure thing with so many teams playing pure cupcakes + not playing the tough conf teams this yr - BaronVonZemo - 7:41am 10/1/25